Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 213.048009 253.672560 302.212623 365.157411 445.613883 546.381759 6.843521e+02
2025-10-12 170.496172 221.184673 288.965981 388.715524 536.211885 753.937339 1.115426e+03
2025-10-19 143.858740 198.364460 277.470211 405.656307 618.665450 980.230344 1.696418e+03
2025-10-26 124.330075 179.582244 265.022713 414.596486 688.617389 1214.519280 2.444455e+03
2025-11-02 108.950359 163.284907 251.716800 416.778155 745.605819 1450.272692 3.382318e+03
2025-11-09 95.315810 147.036756 234.693983 407.032527 775.216635 1643.431167 4.399219e+03
2025-11-16 84.543979 133.667956 219.874568 397.258517 800.806469 1841.071053 5.655337e+03
2025-11-23 75.679001 122.204631 206.349701 386.573114 820.451989 2035.508346 7.169366e+03
2025-11-30 73.065321 121.341740 212.256257 417.946790 954.042814 2648.019871 1.158095e+04
2025-12-07 67.970313 115.190035 206.773378 422.580408 1020.125005 3098.252641 1.635574e+04
2025-12-14 64.191825 111.004783 204.526243 434.244980 1111.821259 3726.594863 2.458596e+04
2025-12-21 59.804220 105.090553 197.731872 433.100499 1164.775476 4253.007475 3.461502e+04
2025-12-28 58.562806 105.449570 204.911365 471.253982 1371.731381 5786.747325 6.993166e+04
2026-01-04 56.762741 104.448843 208.957579 502.619544 1577.359173 7697.149984 1.478826e+05
2026-01-11 54.547021 102.285770 209.949206 525.787996 1769.165394 9958.109016 3.279082e+05
2026-01-18 51.927876 98.930680 207.532623 538.129316 1926.034235 12389.429764 7.489072e+05
2026-01-25 49.102371 94.799241 202.562556 541.144233 2044.775061 14877.045116 1.787788e+06
2026-02-01 45.804875 89.271325 193.279593 527.599363 2074.889582 16593.305225 3.809704e+06
2026-02-08 42.834852 84.211153 184.560531 514.047650 2099.732589 18426.931830 9.295511e+06
2026-02-15 40.102162 79.449706 176.032064 499.267047 2111.270245 20228.187757 2.658592e+07
2026-02-22 39.841212 80.420156 182.979363 542.763863 2505.757691 30390.409878 1.949405e+10
2026-03-01 38.218765 77.990852 180.252970 549.213303 2676.269230 37925.681677 NaN
2026-03-08 37.032256 76.501159 179.973080 565.477219 2935.707116 50514.485338 NaN